The Oscars went off without a hitch last night, handing out all awards without any major snafus, a remarkable feat for any award show. The few surprises of the night came in the form of some of the top awards – and their winners. Curious to see if these shockers influenced fan sentiment around top category nominees, we compared positive online conversations before (left) and after (right) the show to see how early-fan favorites and actual winners matched up.  

Actress in a Leading Role

Winner: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

In one of the biggest surprises of the night, Olivia Colman, lead actress in 18th-century romp The Favourite, won the Oscar for Best Actress, beating out pre-show fan favorites Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) and Yalitza Aparicio (Roma). Despite her award win and endearing acceptance speech, however, Olivia Colman trended only second in positive conversations during and after the show, with Lady Gaga, no doubt buffeted by her live performance of “Shallow” during the show, continuing to dominate positive conversations.

Actor in a Leading Role

Winner: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

While he took a literal tumble off the stage after giving his acceptance speech for Best Actor, Rami Malek soared in positive conversations during and after the show, while pre-show leader Bradley Cooper dipped to second place.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Winner: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Accepting the first award of the night, early fan-favorite Regina King went home with the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress, beating out Marina de Tavira (Roma), who led pre-show positive media mentions. Interestingly, Marina saw the fewest positive conversations during and after the show, with Regina and the other more well-known nominees surging ahead.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Winner: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

While lagging slightly behind Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) in positive conversations leading up to the show, Mahershala Ali surged ahead in post-show conversations, following his historic win for Best Supporting Actor. Ali is the first black man to win two Oscars in this category.  

Best Picture

Winner: Green Book

In one of the more surprising moments of the night, Green Book, which was surrounded by a flurry of controversies leading up to the show, went home with the Oscar for Best Picture. According to our data, however, fans didn’t seem to agree with the Academy’s choice. Pre-show fan-favorites Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody held strong in positive post-show conversations, beating out Green Book, which came in third. Interestingly, one of the top pre-show fan-favorites, A Star is Born, saw a significant decrease in conversations during and post-show, dropping down four spots.

Animated Feature Film

Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

In one of the more straightforward and expected wins of the night, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, went home with the Oscar for Best Animated Feature, besting category favorite Pixar’s Incredibles 2 and dominating post-show positive conversations.

Directing

Winner: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

While Alfonso Cuarón took home the Oscar for Best Director for his work on Roma, Spike Lee, first-time category nominee and heavy fan favorite, completely dominated the conversation before, during and after the show. The surge in post-show conversation was likely caused by Lee’s first-ever Oscar win for Best Adapted Screenplay (30 years after his first Oscar nomination), his poignant acceptance speech and fan disapproval following his Best Director loss.

Original Song

Winner: “Shallow,” A Star is Born

Following a powerful live performance by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga on the Oscars mainstage, “Shallow,” the hit song from A Star is Born, took home the Oscar for Best Original Song – no surprise considering pre-show data. “All the Stars,” from Black Panther, held steady at second place before and after the show.

Our final post-show analysis? Pre-show fan-favorites from all categories won the night, whether or not they actually went home with an Oscar. While Spike Lee may not have won the Oscar for Best Director and Black Panther was beat out for Best Picture by Green Book, their fans rallied behind them during and after the show, demonstrating the power of fan-favorites and the lessons Academy voters can learn ahead of next year’s show.

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